Published December 2002

Jobless rate drops,
but analysts not cheering

By Mike Benbow
Herald Business Editor

Snohomish County’s unemployment rate dropped a bit in October, but local labor analysts suggested the move may not signal an improvement in the local economy.

The county’s jobless rate dropped from 7.6 percent in September to 7.2 percent in October.

The change in the statewide rate was even greater. It fell from 7.4 percent to 6.7 percent, a drop of seven-tenths of a percentage point, according to the state Employment Security Department.

Donna Thompson, the agency’s labor economist for Snohomish County, said the drop in the jobless rate may actually be an indication that a lot of people have given up hope of finding a job.

“During a recession, we may experience increasing numbers of discouraged workers who have given up searching for jobs and therefore are no longer counted among the ranks of the unemployed,” Thompson said.

“In the bleak economic environment we are experiencing, it is tempting to look for signs of a turnaround, and it is easy to attach too much significance to this one economic indicator.”

Another sign pointing to continued economic weakness, Thompson said, is that Snohomish County lost 1,100 jobs over the month, when the total of nonfarm jobs fell to 206,000.

That’s a loss of 8,700 jobs during the past 12 months, according to the agency’s figures.

In October, jobs at the Boeing Co. and related firms dropped by 200, a drop of 8,700 jobs during the last year. In September, the county also lost 600 retail positions and another 600 jobs in health services. Some of the cuts were offset by gains in insurance, real estate and state education.

The picture was similar statewide, with state Employment Security Commissioner Sylvia Mundy suggesting that discouraged workers may have played a role in the dropping unemployment rate statewide.

“Too many uncertainties exist to take the October numbers as a sign that the economy has significantly improved in Washington,” Mundy said.

The highest jobless rate in Washington was in Columbia County, which posted 10.3 percent. The lowest was in Whitman County, where the rate was 2 percent.

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