Snohomish County Business Journal


YOUR COUNTY.	YOUR BUSINESS JOURNAL.

Published July 2003

Boeing: World jet fleet
to double by 2022

By John Wolcott
SCBJ Editor

Despite competition from the European Airbus consortium — which expects to surpass Boeing’s aircraft deliveries for the first time by delivering 300 aircraft compared to Boeing’s anticipated 280 — don’t expect Boeing to become a minor player in the global airliner arena.

Even the Airbus sales announced at June’s 45th annual Paris Air Show need to be seen in the proper light. Emirates airline in Dubai will be buying $12.5 billion worth of Airbus models, including 21 of the new double-decked, 550-passenger A380 super-jumbo aircraft due to enter the market soon.

But Boeing is hardly being squeezed out of the market by Airbus. The company has competitively built a global reputation that is expected to continue for decades to come.

Boeing’s historic role in the development of commercial jet airliners began in 1950 when company president William Allen saw the de Havilland Comet at a British air show. He knew instinctively that the four-engine Comet represented the future for commercial airliners, and he wanted Boeing to be a part of that future.

Only four years later, the Dash 80 prototype of the future Boeing 707 rolled out of the company’s Renton factory and flew into the history books — a prototype that led first to development of the military’s KC-135 aerial refueling tanker and then to the creation of the 707 commercial airliner.

When 707 production ended in 1991, more than 1,000 models of the 707 had been built, and British Airways, the first customer for the design-defective Comet, had become one of Boeing’s largest customers.

(Ironically, one of the few remaining models of the Comet, the world’s first jet-powered commercial airliner, is being restored at the Museum of Flight’s Restoration Center at Paine Field, less than half a mile from Boeing’s largest airliner assembly plant, where 747, 767 and 777 models are produced today.)

After decades of being the world’s leading airliner manufacturer, with its popular 727, 737, 747, 757, 767 and 777 aircraft, Boeing has recently faced serious competition from Airbus, but Boeing’s role in commercial aviation is anything but over.

In fact, a news release from Boeing at the Paris Airshow — where the company’s exhibit included plans for the 7E7, the 767 Tanker Transport, a salute to the 100th anniversary of powered flight and Boeing’s concept for a satellite-based air traffic management system — projects the company’s market for new airplanes and services between 2002 and 2022 will reach $5.2 trillion.

Boeing estimates the world fleet of commercial aircraft in 2022 will more than double to 34,000 jetliners, including 18,400 new aircraft for market growth, 5,900 aircraft for replacement and 9,700 aircraft that are currently flying.

The study estimates world air travel will grow an average of 5.1 percent annually, with regional growth varying between 4 percent and 7.3 percent, with Latin America expected to be the fastest-growing region.

Randy Baseler, Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ vice president for marketing, said, “Passenger preference for more frequent, nonstop flights with shorter trip times will continue to drive market evolution and airline strategies.”

During the 20-year period Boeing forecasts that airlines will invest $1.9 trillion in new commercial airplanes, representing 24,275 airplane deliveries, including 4,300 small regional jets, 13,645 larger regional jets, 5,440 intermediate-size planes and 890 larger jets such as the 747.

Also, the Boeing report predicts the world’s freighter fleet will double over that 20-year period from 1,752 to 3,501 aircraft.

As part of the company’s diversification in the commercial flying market, Boeing expects the support services industry will be worth about $3.3 trillion, generating annual revenues significantly more than for the new aircraft market.

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