Published June 2002

Gates sees future of faster, easier, safer technology

Computers without keyboards?

Bill Gates thinks so.

He told nearly 1,400 computer and biotechnology industry leaders and elected officials at last month’s Technology Alliance annual meeting in Seattle that his vision of the future includes new software that will enable computers to function more like paper tablets and notepads — without using a keyboard to enter information.

Keyboards won’t go away entirely, of course, but alternatives are coming soon, he said. Within six months, he said, a foldable tablet PC like the one he held up to show the audience will be on the market.

“Keyboarding is a limiting factor,” Gates said, noting that even using today’s laptop computers in business meetings often violates corporate etiquette in many situations.

“At Microsoft, we say in advance of any meeting whether it will be a face-to-face meeting or a hybrid meeting with people computing at the back (of the room). To have a computer that is more like a tablet of paper, like this one (holding up a sleek, thin, laptop-size tablet PC), no one would be bothered because you’re writing on it just as though it was a tablet,” he said.

The light-weight tablet PC will also make it far easier to pass photographs, graphs or documents around for viewing, compared to today’s heavier and bulkier desktop and laptop computers.

Other software and hardware developments Gates expects to see over the next decade include:

• Faster CPUs, broader bandwidth and larger hard drives, the “miracles” he believes will enable Microsoft to design a new generation of software that will blend word processing, e-mail and spreadsheets more seamlessly.
• Reading books and other documents comfortably off computer screens, using improved screens with incredible resolution that will eliminate today’s fatigue from trying to read small screens.
• “In the future,” Gates said, “you will read articles (on a wireless tablet laptop), write notes on them and transmit them to someone.”
• Software programs will provide information “when you want it, without going to look for it,” he said, and cell phones will update address books, log calls and let users take screen notes while talking to people.
• Digital media — such as voice, video, photos and music — will be easy to share and use, with copyrights managed by new software.
• “Ring-Cams” at video conferences will offer 360-degree panoramic views of rooms full of people and record all of the actions of a meeting.
• Web services and new tools will enable companies and people to work together much more efficiently compared to today.
• New software will make computers easier to use by providing advanced security systems, better online support, fault-tolerant servers, automatic backups, and more redundant, self-repairing programs to create more trustworthy systems.
• Instead of passwords, people will use smart cards to prevent identity theft when they operate software programs and computer equipment.

“If we think of all these improvements, the productivity improvement over the next decade will surpass everything that PC and computers have given us to date,” he said. “The road ahead will include a new generation of software, taking the PC to a whole new level of power and use. I have confidence that will happen and much of it will happen right here in Washington state.”

Gates said Microsoft employs nearly 25,000 people in Washington, working closely with the University of Washington and other research centers. He said Microsoft performs 80 percent — about $4 billion worth — of its research and development work in the Puget Sound area, the most spent on research in one place by any company in the world.

As Chairman and Chief Software Architect for Microsoft Corp., Gates has insight few others do. Most of his predictions are likely to come true. Let’s hope those improvements come sooner rather than later. Most of us need all the help we can get right now.

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